Outsider observers would be forgiven for being a little mystified at news that the US is – yet again – days away from a potential government shutdown. What is going on?
When is the deadline?
A spending bill – called an appropriations bill in US political parlance – must be passed by both Houses of Congress and signed by President Donald Trump by midnight on Friday 19 January.
If that does not happen, the federal government effectively closes its doors, although emergency services would continue.
Haven’t we been here before?
Yes, the US government has closed for business several times.
Most recently in 2013 for 16 days, when Republicans demanded the spending bill have provisions to strip funding from Obamacare or delay its implementation.
National monuments and parks were closed and hundreds of thousands of government workers put on unpaid leave. Only one person was left to patrol the 5,525 mile (8,891km) border with Canada.
Before 2013, there was a shutdown for 18 days in 1978 and two under Bill Clinton in 1995 and 1996.
10 consequences of the US shutdown in 2013
Who is putting the bill together?
Hopes for a long-term spending bill, funding the US government for the entire 2018 budget year that ends in October, have long since vanished.
At the moment all that’s under consideration is a stopgap measure that will keep Washington running until 16 February, when the whole showdown will start anew.
The bill is being crafted by the Republican leadership in the House of Representatives and the Senate and the current proposal includes a few sweeteners to make it easier to vote for (and more difficult to vote against).
Several unpopular healthcare taxes are suspended in this bill.
And the Children’s Health Insurance Programme (Chip), which provides coverage for low-income families – on the verge of running out of funds – is fully re-authorised for six years.
Wasn’t everything looking good for it to pass?
On Wednesday the Republican game plan seemed clear.
Pass the temporary funding, with the sweeteners, over unanimous Democratic opposition in the House of Representatives. Then essentially dare Democrats to block the bill in the Senate, denying money for poor children and forcing a shutdown.
If the Republicans in the upper chamber stayed unified, it would take 40 of the 49 Democrats to vote no to sink the bill.
The ground beneath the party began to crack on Thursday, however.
The president tweeted that he didn’t support the inclusion of Chip funding in the stopgap bill, forcing White House scramble to explain that Mr Trump still backed the legislation.
The House Freedom Caucus, a collection of conservative hard-liners with enough numbers to kill the bill, would not commit to a yes vote.
A handful of Republicans in the Senate said they would vote no. And the Senate Democrats announced they had enough votes on their own to block passage.
The shutdown was turning into a game of chicken, and no one seemed willing to blink.
Any other sticking points?
Take your pick:
- a comprehensive immigration deal that includes Daca protections (for Democrats)
- border security, immigration reform and funding for a border wall (for Mr Trump)
- increasing military spending (for defence hawks)
The presences (or absence) of any of the above could be reason for a legislator to go from yes to no.
So what’s probably going to happen?
One of the following:
- the stopgap continuing resolution passes, after considerable drama – probable
- the government shuts down. Public employees are furloughed, some national parks close, passport offices are shuttered, the blame game begins in earnest – possible
- a larger compromise, on immigration or government spending, is reached – unlikely
What date should we pencil in for the next shutdown?
Don’t get comfortable. Even if the stopgap measure is passed, the government will only be funded until 16 February.
At that point, legislators will also have to contemplate authorising an increase in the total national debt and, if they haven’t addressed it yet, how – or if – to give former Daca recipients protections before the programme begins phasing out on 6 March.
Read more on Trump’s first year
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